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JULY 31,  2023

THERE'S AN ELECTION SOMEPLACE?  REALLY?  Yeah, really.  The United States will hold a presidential election in one year and three months.  That is ten lifetimes in politics.  But you'd think, judging by the "news" reports, that the election will be held next week.

I urge you to be careful about political reports that try to predict the election, or the nominees.  At this stage, most political reporting falls into the infotainment category.  Polls are fun, and meaningless.  Speculation about which candidates are on top, ditto.  We don't even know, to put it bluntly, if some of the leading candidates will even survive medically to the next election.  And events, both world and national, have a way of disrupting political prognostication. 

The stories to avoid are those that generously use the word "may."  This "may" happen if this other thing happens.  This guy "may" get into the race.  (On the other hand, he may not.)  The stories to look for are those that, with authority, identify trends.  They may be polls, but they may also be sharp observations.

It was more than a year ago when a knowledgeable Hispanic commentator told me that the press was getting it wrong when reporting on the Hispanic communities (note the plural).  Hispanics, he said, are going through generational change.  They don't want to wear Che Guevara T-shirts.  They want to wear Brooks Brothers suits, and they are.  They're less interested in the Ivy League than in the great southern schools, especially Texas A&M.  And in the year since my talk with that Hispanic commentator we have seen one story after another confirming that Hispanic Americans are moving to the right.  That is a trend to watch – it follows the traditions of other immigrant groups, and generational change is one of the most permanent trends of all. 

And so we come to another trend worth watching...that black Americans are drifting, if slowly, away from their base in the Democratic Party.  From Daily Caller: 

Democrats are concerned that black voters won’t turn out for President Joe Biden in 2024 like they did during the 2020 election, according to The Washington Post.

Democrats are increasingly worried after the 2022 midterms saw a 10% voting drop among the crucial electorate, despite the party’s victories in the Senate, according to the Post. Party activists are now making it a priority to bolster turnout for black voters, particularly in key battleground states Biden narrowly secured in 2020 — Georgia, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan.

“The Democratic Party has been failing epically at reaching this demographic of black men — and that’s sad to say,” W. Mondale Robinson, founder of the Black Male Voter Project, told the Post. “Black men are your second-most stable base overwhelmingly, and yet you can’t reach them in a way that makes your work easier.”

Robinson argued that Democrats should focus on black men, who are “sporadic or non-voters,” rather than suburban “conservative-leaning white women,” he told the Post. Many Democrats told the Post their concerns are largely over black men and not women, who they expect to continue to show out for Biden so long as Vice President Kamala Harris is on the ballot.

Black voters are significantly less enthused about a Biden reelection campaign than they were in 2020, with only 55% saying they’re likely to support him in 2024, according to an early May AP/NORC poll. The same poll suggests that 81% of Democratic voters say they’d definitely or probably would support the president if he’s the nominee.

“We have to meet them where they are and we have to show them why the political process matters and what we have accomplished that benefits them,” Cedric L. Richmond, senior adviser at the Democratic National Committee (DNC) and former Biden adviser, told the Post. “We will not make the mistake that others made of not drawing all the connections.”

Terrance Woodbury, co-founder and CEO of HIT Strategies, a polling firm focused on minority voters, told the Post that Democrats need to emphasize how their policies benefit black voters rather than voicing concern over former President Donald Trump.
Sharif Street, a Democratic state senator in Pennsylvania, echoed Woodbury’s sentiment, and told the Post “being better than the Republicans is not always enough to get people motivated to vote.”

COMMENT:  Fascinating.  Maybe black men are becoming more and more aware that the Democratic Party hasn't lifted a finger for them...unless they're elected officials.  We should remember that, until the modern civil rights movement came along, blacks were a safe Republican constituency.  The GOP was the party of Lincoln, the Dems the party of segregation.

Why the change to the Democrats?  First of all, the Republicans, as usual, were late to the game, whereas liberal northern Democrats embraced Dr. King and his movement.  The voting rights act gave extra power to black voters, and they started turning to the party that marched with them.

It's sad, because the major civil rights laws of the 1960s were passed in part because of Republican support.  

Today, Republicans have a chance to take back a good chunk of black America by showing the economic opportunities that Republican policies will bring.  But will the GOP move?  That is the question, isn't it?

July 31, 2023       Permalink

JULY 29-30,  2023

A NATIONAL SECURITY CRISIS:  Americans are losing confidence in their armed forces.  Enemies, and we have them, will note that in their planning.  What an accomplishment for the left:  From Gallup:

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Americans are now less likely to express “a great deal” or “quite a lot” of confidence in the U.S. military, with a noticeable decline that has persisted for the past five years. The latest numbers are from a June 1-22 Gallup poll that also captured record lows in public confidence in several public institutions.

At 60%, confidence in the military was last this low in 1997, and it hasn’t been lower since 1988, when 58% were confident. From the late 1970s to the early 1980s -- during the Cold War and amid threats to U.S. power, including the Iran hostage crisis -- between 50% and 58% of Americans were confident in the military. Confidence generally improved during Ronald Reagan’s presidency in the 1980s. It then surged after the Gulf War victory (to a record-high 85% in 1991) and again after the 9/11 terrorist attacks. Confidence generally held above 70% for the next two decades, until dipping to 69% in 2021 and declining further since then, following the poorly executed exit from Afghanistan.

Throughout nearly all of the past 48 years, Republicans have been the most likely to express confidence in the military, and they remain so today -- but the rate has declined by over 20 percentage points in three years, from 91% to 68%.

Independents’ confidence has dropped nearly as much -- by 13 points, from 68% to 55% -- and now independents have less confidence than Democrats do. While Democrats’ confidence rating did rise after President Joe Biden assumed office, those gains have disappeared in the past year.

Public perceptions of the U.S. military have fluctuated dramatically over the past five decades. The aftermaths of the Gulf War and 9/11 were followed by resounding upticks in confidence in the military. The latter of these surges ushered in an era of elevated confidence lasting nearly two decades.

Now that the U.S. has completely withdrawn from both Iraq and Afghanistan, the two most significant military legacies of the 2001 terrorist attacks on the U.S., confidence in the military has continued to decline among the public. The declines this year were across all party identification groups, with Republicans remaining the most likely to express confidence and independents becoming the least likely.

COMMENT:  The introduction of wokism into the armed forces by leftists in the Biden administration will do nothing to improve these numbers.  The more the armed forces show themselves to be effective, patriotic outfits, the more confidence Americans will have.   We expect the military to have one mission – the protection of the United States of America.  Political correctness does not make the list.

July 30,  2023     Permalink

ANOTHER RISING REPUBLICAN STAR; WATCH THIS GUY VERY CLOSELY.  FROM THE HILL: 

Vivek Ramaswamy has emerged as something of a breakout star in the 2024 GOP presidential primary, raising speculation over his future within the party.

Many Republicans have praised the 37-year-old biotech entrepreneur, calling him an effective communicator with an impressive professional resume for a political outsider. 

While there’s heavy skepticism that Ramaswamy will win any of the early-state primaries, many see him as a rising figure within the party’s ranks.

“I think that his message is resonating well with the Republican activist crowd, and he is being positive enough with regards to [former President] Trump to basically be an alternative without being an anti-Trump guy,” said GOP strategist and former Michigan GOP Chairman Saul Anuzis.

“I think that resonates with many of the Trump supporters and let’s say soft Trump supporters who would like to move on, but yet see somebody who’s not running kind of on a message of attacking Trump and his legacy,” he added.

Initially considered a long-shot candidate when he launched his campaign in February, the “Woke, Inc.” author entered the race known in part for his staunch opposition to environmental, social and corporate governance (ESG) policies. 

But the political outsider and first millennial to run for president on the GOP side has started to catch some momentum in the GOP primary. ..

...National polling, too, suggests voters are starting to give Ramaswamy a serious look. 
A RealClearPolitics polling average shows Ramaswamy placing third at 5.4 percent, behind Trump in first place with 52.4 percent and DeSantis at 18.4 percent.

Still, most national polls show the biotech entrepreneur in the single digits compared to Trump, who remains the front-runner in surveys. Some early state polls in New Hampshire and South Carolina show Ramaswamy trailing some of the other GOP candidates, such as Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and Sen. Tim Scott (S.C.).

COMMENT:  He's an inspiring guy, clearly very thoughtful, and can have a great future.  He could even wind up on next year's ticket as vice presidential nominee.  He may also stand out in the first Republican presidential debate, scheduled for late August. 

With Trump's future in doubt because of the legal onslaught against him, a high-quality unknown could suddenly surprise us.

July 30, 2023       Permalink